Jonathan N. Wand - Kenneth W. Shotts - Jasjeet S. Sekhon - Walter R. Mebane, Jr. - Michael C. Herron
Date: November 28, 2000
Version 1.3
Compared to all the 4,317 reporting districts (counties or
townships) that cover 46 of the 50 United States, Palm Beach County
is one the second most irregular in terms of having exceptionally
high support for Buchanan that deviates from expected patterns.
Among districts with more than 10,000 voters, Palm Beach County is
the most irregular. Furthermore, based on census and
electoral data from all 67 Florida counties we find that Buchanan's
true support in Palm Beach County was significantly less than his
0.79 percent vote share.
Our analysis shows that in Palm Beach County Buchanan did better in
precincts that strongly supported Gore. In addition, we show that
liberal precincts within Palm Beach County tended to have higher
proportions of ballots that were not counted for the Presidential
election either because no holes were punched or multiple holes were
punched. This evidence supports the claim that the ballot format in
Palm Beach County led some Gore supporters mistakenly to vote for
Buchanan and, in some cases, to vote for multiple presidential
candidates.
Overall, we offer several different analyses of presidential voting in Palm Beach County, and each analysis leads to the same result: The vote totals in Palm Beach County are irregular. In particular, Buchanan received far more votes in Palm Beach County than we should expect given the county's characteristics and historical voting patterns. Moreover, patterns of voting within the county indicate that excess votes for Buchanan came primarily from Gore supporters.