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I began my own analysis of the impacts of the Palm Beach
ballot as an intellectual exercise on the evening of Wednesday,
November 8th, and I completed it by Thursday afternoon, November 9th.
I then posted it on the web at
http://socrates.berkeley.edu/ ucdtpums/).
Many others also posted their analysis in the next few days. Among
the numerous excellent pieces of research, I rely upon the paper by
Jonathan Wand, Kenneth Shotts, Jasjeet Sekhon, Walter Mebane, and
Michael Herron which is available on the web at
http://elections.fas.harvard.edu/.
My analysis relies upon standard and widely used statistical
techniques. It also relies upon my experience as a Ph.D. in Political
Science and Economics, as a teacher of courses in statistical methods
at the University of California, Berkeley, and as a widely published
author in statistical methods and electoral research. The papers
mentioned above and many others present overwhelming evidence that the
percentage of the vote for Patrick Buchanan in Palm Beach County is
extraordinarily atypical compared to all other Florida Counties and
compared to other reporting districts around the country once we
control for state variations in Buchanan support and for the different
sizes of reporting units. These analyses prove with a very high degree
of scientific certainty that the Palm Beach County Buchanan vote of
about .8% was exceptionally large - between 2.6 to
six standard deviations away from the expected value of around .19
Thus, the likelihood that the observed Buchanan vote is produced by
the same factors that were at work in the rest of Florida's counties
is certainly no greater than one out of 200 and possibly as small as
one in a billion.
Next: Why are there so
Up: Report on Voting and
Previous: Impact of Ballot Design
Jasjeet S. Sekhon
2000-11-18