Report on Voting and Ballot Form in Palm Beach County

Henry E. Brady
Professor of Political Science and Public Policy
Director, Survey Research Center and UC DATA
University of California, Berkeley

Date: November 16, 2000

Contact Information:
Professor of Political Science and Public Policy
Director, Survey Research Center and UC DATA
University of California, Berkeley
hbrady@bravo.berkeley.edu
http://ucdata.berkeley.edu/brady.html

Please click here to download a pdf version of this statement.

Summary

I believe with a very high degree of scientific certainty that defects in the butterfly ballot form used in Palm Beach County caused substantial bias in the recording of people's votes. At least 2000 people who intended to vote for Al Gore ended up having their votes recorded for Pat Buchanan, but virtually no one who intended to vote for George Bush had their vote recorded for another candidate. As a result, the butterfly ballot in Palm Beach County had the net effect of being significantly biased against Al Gore.

The evidence for this conclusion comes from my own analysis of data from Florida counties using standard statistical methods for the analysis of electoral data, from my knowledge of designing forms and questionnaires to elicit information from people, and from my review and replication of research by others.

I believe that my testimony will assist the court in understanding the issues presented. Furthermore, my conclusions are based upon scientific principles which have been established for many years and which are universally recognized and accepted in the field of political methodology.